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25% more working-age adults will have diagnosed major illness by 2040

A new report shows that 3.7 million working-age adults will be living with major illness by 2040 and 80% of this increase will be in the more deprived areas.

A new report shows that 3.7 million working-age adults will be living with major illness by 2040 and 80% of this increase will be in the more deprived areas, further entrenching health inequalities and having considerable implications for local and regional economies.

The analysis from the Health Foundation finds that a handful of conditions contribute to most of the health inequality such as chronic pain, type 2 diabetes and anxiety and depression, which are projected to grow at a faster rate in the most deprived areas.

These conditions have a significant impact on quality of life and may limit people’s ability to work for long periods of time. They are also typically managed by GPs or in the community, underlining the importance of investing in primary care and focusing on prevention and early intervention.

Employers already face significant challenges caused by rising economic inactivity. The report shows that this challenge isn’t going away and could lead to more people leaving the workforce, thereby reducing labour supply and undermining efforts to increase economic growth.

Jo Bibby, Director of Health at the Health Foundation, said: “Good health is our most precious asset, and a healthy workforce is the backbone of any thriving economy. We are already seeing the impact of poor health on the economy, with record numbers of people out of the workforce. Without action, the number of working-age people living with major illness is set to increase, particularly in the most deprived areas of the country.”

Need to improve working-age health

On current trends, the government’s target to improve healthy life expectancy by five years by 2035 and narrow the gap between the areas with the best and worst health will be missed by a significant margin. With Labour also proposing measures to improve healthy life expectancy and reduce health inequalities in their health mission, the report underlines the need for the parties to set out the action they will take to improve working-age health ahead of the forthcoming General Election.

The report concludes that action beyond the NHS is needed to address poor health. Policies focused on the risk factors of ill health – smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity and harmful alcohol consumption – are essential but insufficient to tackle health inequalities. The report also calls for:

  • a long-term, cross-government approach to address the underlying causes of ill health, such as poor housing, inadequate incomes and poor-quality jobs
  • investment in the NHS, local authorities and the voluntary sector to manage higher demand for services, especially in the most deprived areas
  • employers to be doing more to improve working conditions and support the wellbeing of their staff.

Ann Raymond, Economist at the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre, added: “The findings from this report clearly demonstrate how people living in more deprived areas develop major illness earlier, live for longer in poor health and die younger than their counterparts in less deprived areas. These inequalities will remain stubbornly persistent over the next two decades if current trends continue.

“This report should be a wake-up call for politicians ahead of the General Election about the need for action to address rising ill health – our future health and prosperity as a nation depends on it.”

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