Circulatory diseases contribute to the highest number of cold weather deaths UKHSA report finds

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has published a new Cold mortality monitoring report and has provided an estimated number of deaths attributable to cold weather that occurred during winter 2025/26 in England.

Key findings:

• An estimated 2,200 cold-associated deaths occurred in winter of 2025/26.
• Circulatory diseases present the highest mortality risk for cold-associated deaths.
• The North West experienced the highest mortality rate in England.
• Severe cold weather in January 2026 resulted in 1,563 cold-associated deaths.
• The North East experienced the lowest mortality rate in England

The UKHSA estimates that 2,200 deaths were associated with cold weather in England during the winter of 2025 to 2026 in its new report, published 22 October 2026.

The report examined 5 cold weather periods between November 2025 and February 2026. 1,563 cold-associated deaths were attributable to a severe 9-day period in early January 2026 when significant cold weather affected all regions of England and saw Amber Cold Health Alerts (CHAs) in place.

Conditions with higher mortality risk of cold weather associated death

757 deaths were linked to circulatory diseases, causing the highest number of cold-associated deaths. Deaths from cancer, accidents and injuries also became more likely during colder temperatures.

Influenza and pneumonia showed more complex reactions between cold weather and seasonal infections, with mortality risks increasing during both very cold weather and milder periods of weather.

Dementia, Alzheimer’s disease and chronic lower respiratory diseases presented similar patterns in mortality risks, with less extreme changes in correspondence to temperature change.

The estimated number of cold-associated deaths recorded has decreased compared with last year. An estimated 2,788 cold-associated deaths were recorded during winter 2024 to 2025.

Regional Differences across England

The North West experienced the highest cold-associated mortality rate, with an estimated 52 cold-associated deaths per million population. The East Midlands, Yorkshire and The Humber were recognised as other areas that experienced high mortality rates.

The report observed the lowest number of cold-associated deaths in the North East, despite the area experiencing colder winter temperatures compared to other parts of England.

The UKHSA noted that in previous analyses, the North East had consistently seen a comparatively low cold-associated mortality burden. Reasons for this pattern in the North East may include underlying population health, behavioural and social adaptation to colder conditions, and housing quality and heating practices. Further research is needed to confirm and better understand how regionally specific factors such as housing quality could affect cold-associated mortality risks.

Findings for the report have been published amid the Government’s campaigns encouraging millions of eligible people to book their flu vaccination.

The UKHSA estimates that flu vaccinations prevented around 7,000 deaths and around 100,000 hospitalisations in England over the last year.

Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, said:”Cold weather poses a serious risk to health, particularly for people who are more vulnerable because of their age, health, or living circumstances. Our cold weather mortality report shows that around 2,200 people died as a result of very low temperatures last winter.”

“While this estimate of cold-associated deaths is lower than we saw during the previous winter, these figures show that even short periods of cold weather can have serious effects on health and can lead to increased deaths in the days and weeks that follow.”

“As we head into winter, it is important that everyone takes simple steps to protect themselves and others. This includes keeping parts of our homes warm, checking in on friends, family and neighbours that are most vulnerable, and following weather forecasts and public health advice during cold weather.”

The Cold mortality monitoring report will contribute to the evidence driving the Adverse Weather and Health Plan for England, a plan which seeks to support local and national organisations to respond and prepare for adverse weather events to promote wellbeing, health and protect lives.

Asha Wardle

Asha is a writer at Pavilion Health Today.

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