Majority of early breast cancer patients will become long-term survivors

A new analysis from the BMJ has found that the majority of women diagnosed with early breast cancer can expect to become long-term cancer survivors.

The study, funded by Cancer Research UK, also found that there has also been substantial fall in risk of death from breast cancer from 14% to 5% since the 1990s. For those diagnosed during 2010-15, more than six in 10 women had a five year risk of 3% or less.

This means that more than 90% of women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer will survive the disease for 5 years or more.

The researchers say their findings can be used to reassure most women treated for early breast cancer that they are likely to become long term cancer survivors. The findings can also help identify those for whom the risk of dying from breast cancer remains substantial.

Worldwide, more than 2 million women receive a diagnosis of early breast cancer each year. While the risk of dying from breast cancer in these women has decreased over the past few decades, the extent of this decrease was previously unknown. Also, it was not known whether this decrease applied to groups of women with certain characteristics or whether it applied to all groups.

The researchers used data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service to investigate the long term risks of dying from breast cancer after a diagnosis of early breast cancer.

They included all 512,447 women registered in England with early breast cancer (i.e. cancer confined to the breast and possibly the axillary lymph nodes) as their first cancer from January 1993 to December 2015, and who were treated initially with surgery.

Annual breast cancer death rates and cumulative five year risks were estimated, taking account of time since diagnosis, calendar period of diagnosis, and characteristics such as age, whether the cancer was detected by screening, involvement of lymph nodes, and tumour size and grade. All women were followed until December 2020.

This is the first study of its size to follow up patients for an extended period, and to map out how detailed characteristics of specific patients and their cancers relate to different outcomes. That means it does much more than tell us about the past.

“Our study can be used to estimate risk for individual women in the clinic today,” explains Professor Carolyn Taylor, lead author of the study.

“It gives doctors the data they need to make predictions, or prognoses, for women diagnosed with early breast cancer. These prognoses can help women understand their situation and plan their futures.”