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The NHS would still be facing a huge backlog of care, even if the Covid pandemic had never happened, according to a new report by QualityWatch.
The report, How much is Covid-19 to blame for growing NHS waiting times?, found that the NHS waiting list would currently sit at 5.3 million if pre-pandemic trends had continued.
Indeed, the total waiting list for elective care was steadily increasing before Covid-19, from 2.5 million in April 2012 to 4.6 million in February 2020.
With 6.7 million people currently awaiting NHS care, it is clear that Covid-19 has only accelerated a long-term trajectory of declining NHS performance.
“The pandemic itself cannot be seen as the sole cause of the alarming waits for care”
Nuffield Trust Fellow Jessica Morris said: “There is no denying the seismic upheaval that Covid-19 has had on health and care services, but the pandemic itself cannot be seen as the sole cause of the alarming waits for care.”
She added that backlogs for routine care, increasing waits in A&E departments, longer ambulance response times and waits for cancer treatment existed long before the pandemic, and there has been a ‘mismatch’ of demand, staffing and resources in play for years before Covid hit.
Recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic is now a daunting challenge that will need the full attention of the new prime minister, she concludes.
Increasing ambulance, diagnosis and elective care wait times
The report also found that while there have been improvements made to tackle long waiting times, one-year waiters still make up one in 20 people on the waiting list.
Diagnosing patients in a timely manner is also an area the NHS is still grappling with, and the number of patients waiting over 13 weeks has seen around a 25-fold increase during the pandemic.
Ambulance waiting times are also rising, and in March 2022, one in 10 patients waited over two and a quarter hours for an ambulance. This has risen from one in 10 patients waiting over 58 minutes in December 2019.
Delayed discharges have also caused problems across the country, with the number of patients waiting four hours to be admitted to hospitals from A&E units rising by almost 30% during the winter of 2021/22.
The NHS was “on its knees even before the pandemic”
RCN Director for England, Patricia Marquis, said the report’s findings highlight the urgent need for these issues to be addressed, adding that the first thing the new Prime Minister should do is “put this report at the top of their in-tray.”
“Its clear message is that the NHS in England was on its knees even before the pandemic and that even without Covid-19 waiting lists would have risen dramatically.
“It points to the basic demand, staffing and resources mismatch – something our overworked, underpaid and undervalued nursing staff are all too aware of. And because of which patients are suffering,” she said.
Ms Marquis warns that unless decisive action is taken, nursing staff and other NHS colleagues will have no choice but to go on strike this winter.
“I am telling them that the time has come to vote for strike action this year – it is the best way to show politicians what we mean when we say ‘enough is enough’. No one should have to leave this fantastic profession, and patients deserve and require better care,” she concludes.