One in five will be living with a major disease by 2040

Nearly one in five people are predicted to be living with a major disease by 2040, according to a new report by the Health Foundation.

This is up from roughly one in six in 2019 – a predicted rise of 37%, from 6.6 million in 2019 to 9.1 million in 2040.

The Health Foundation are warning that this sharp increase could have “significant implications” for the NHS, other public services and public finances.

Dr Sarah Clarke, President of the Royal College of Physicians, said the results of this increase will be “catastrophic for people and their families, for the health of the NHS and its workforce, and for the prosperity of the nation.”

“We know that much of this illness is avoidable – it’s caused by smoking, poor housing, unemployment, poor food and air quality, and obesity. It is in the gift of the government to do something about all these things.

“This must surely be a wake-up call for the prime minister that we have to put health at the heart of government. We need a strategy that pulls at every policy lever available in order to build a healthier society and economy,” she said.

80% of the projected increase will be among those aged 70+

The new report is part of a four-year project led by the Health Foundation’s Real Centre in partnership with the University of Liverpool, focusing on levels of ill health in the adult population in England.

The analysis looked at over 20 health conditions including dementia, cancer, heart failure, stroke, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, connective tissue disorders, irritable bowel syndrome, asthma, hearing loss, and hypertension.

In total, 19 of the 20 health conditions studied are projected to increase in prevalence, and the number of people living with conditions such as cancer, diabetes and kidney disease is predicted to rise by more than 30%.

Growth in illness relates to conditions such as anxiety and depression, chronic pain and diabetes is also predicted to sky rocket, with older people disproportionately affected.

Indeed, 80% of the projected increase in major illness (2 million people) will be among people aged 70 and over, with the remaining 20% (500,000 people) among the working-age population (20-69 years old).

The authors are warning that projects which improve some of the key drivers of poor health, such as smoking cessation programmes, will be offset by the impact of obesity.

Major illnesses will impact on the labour market and public finances

The report’s authors acknowledge that the challenges of improving care for an ageing population and enabling people to live independent lives for longer are not unique to England, with countries across the globe facing similar pressures on their health services.

However, Anita Charlesworth, Director of the REAL Centre, says we can ‘set ourselves apart’ by ensuring we are well prepared for the challenges that lay ahead.

“Over the next two decades, the growth in major illness will place additional demand on all parts of the NHS, particularly primary care, where services are already under extreme pressure.

“But with one in five people projected to be living with major illness in less than two decades’ time, the impact will extend well beyond the health service and has significant implications for other public services, the labour market and the public finances,” she said.

Long-term plan urgently needed

With the NHS already under unprecedented strain, Toby Watt, Lead Economist: Demand, REAL Centre warns that a long-term plan to reform, modernise and invest in the NHS is urgently needed, alongside a bold, new approach that invests in the nation’s health and wellbeing.

The report also calls for investment in general practice and community-based services, focusing on prevention and early intervention to reduce the impact of illness and improve the quality of people’s lives.

Watt said: “The findings from this report give us new insight into the future demand for health care in England. It is crucial to emphasise that these are projections, not forecasts, which are designed to support policymakers in preparing for the future.

“The rise in people living with major illness will not occur overnight. Managing these pressures is achievable with careful planning, investment and changes in how care is delivered.”