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Unless the government takes urgent action, NHS Trusts in England could face a shortfall of around 160,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) staff across all staff groups by 2030/31, according to a new analysis.
Published by the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre, the analysis argues that the government’s target of recruiting 50,000 extra nurses fails to grasp the growing demand for care driven by an ageing population and an increased number of people with complex health conditions.
Under current policy, the NHS will be short of 30,300 FTE nurses by 2030/31
Indeed, even if the government achieves its target, NHS England could face a shortfall of around 38,000 full time equivalent (FTE) registered nurses by 2023/24 relative to the numbers needed to deliver pre-pandemic levels of care.
Under current policy (which could be viewed as best case scenario), the staffing shortfall is expected reach 30,300 FTE nurses by 2030/31, and under the pessimistic scenario’ (where more nurses leave the profession early and the number of newly registered nurses declines), NHS Trusts could face an even greater shortfall of around 140,600 FTE nurses by 2030/31.
More widely, the report states that the NHS could be short of 160,000 FTE staff across all staff groups by 2030/31. This is around 55% higher than an estimated NHS workforce shortfall of around 103,000 FTE staff in 2021/22.
“The 50,000 target is arbitrary and not based on the number of nurses the NHS needs”
However, the authors of the report say that the situation can be turned around, and with proper planning, the analytical projections suggest it would be possible for the number of nurses in NHS trusts – although not in general practice and social care – to match projected demand by the end of the decade.
To do this, the government needs to fund and deliver sustained increases in students starting nursing degrees; reduce student nurses leaving before qualifying; and reduce the proportion of nurses leaving the NHS before retirement age whilst also continuing to recruit international nurses.
Anita Charlesworth, Director of Research and REAL Centre at the Health Foundation, said: “The 50,000 target is arbitrary and not based on the number of nurses the NHS needs; nor does it ensure that nurses are recruited to the areas and types of care where the need is greatest. 50,000 extra nurses will still leave the NHS almost 40,000 short of what is needed.
“If the new prime minister wants to rebuild the NHS and return it to pre-pandemic levels of care, they need to make nursing a more attractive career choice and put in place a robust, costed long-term plan to address workforce shortages, backed up by independent projections of how many staff will be needed.”
Over half of consultant physician posts went unfilled last year
Commenting on the analysis, Sir Andrew Goddard, president of the Royal College of Physicians, said: “Today’s analysis provides yet further evidence of the urgent need to expand the NHS workforce to keep pace with demand.
“We simply cannot run an efficient health service without the right number of staff to support it, including nurses, doctors and other health and care professionals.
“The Royal College of Physicians’ recent census shows that over half of consultant physician posts went unfilled last year, mostly due to a lack of applicants. A possible shortfall of around 160,000 FTE staff across all staff groups by 2030/31 if current trends continue should concern us all.
“The lack of a clear plan for the NHS and social care from the Conservative candidates hoping to be Prime Minister concerns me. Workforce shortages are the driver of many problems in the NHS, and the problem won’t go away without a clear workforce strategy.
“The next prime minister must take action and commit to deliver the sorely-needed NHS workforce strategy that makes growing and retaining staff a priority.”