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A new report from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) predicts that the NHS waiting list will flatline over 2023, and will only begin to meaningfully fall from mid-2024.
The only way the NHS will achieve a ‘meaningful’ reduction this year, is if the health service drastically increases the number of people it manages to treat, or if the number of people joining the waiting list remains unexpectedly low.
NHS treated fewer patients throughout most of 2022 than before the pandemic
The report has been published exactly one year on from NHS England’s elective recovery plan. At the time of publication, there were 6 million people on the waiting list for elective care; this number now stands at 7.2 million.
But despite the waiting list growing, the NHS did manage to significantly reduce the amount of people waiting a long time for treatment, and now, the number of people waiting two years or more has more or less been eliminated.
The plan also set out to eliminate waits of over 18 months by April 2023, and currently, the health service is on track to do this.
However, authors of the IFS report say it is “highly unlikely” that the NHS will deliver on its target to increase levels of elective activity to around 30% above pre-pandemic levels by 2024–25.
Indeed, in the 10 months following the publication of the elective recovery plan, the NHS treated 5% fewer patients from the waiting list than over the same period in 2019.
It is for this reason the authors predict that the waiting list will not meaningfully fall until 2024, as Max Warner, Research Economist at IFS and an author of the report explains: “To its credit, the NHS has made real progress in its efforts to reduce the number of patients waiting a very long time for care, virtually eliminating waits for care of two years or more.
“But efforts to increase treatment volumes have so far been considerably less successful. In the 10 months following the publication of the elective recovery plan, the NHS treated 5% fewer patients from the waiting list than over the same period in 2019.
“To turn things around, and deliver on the headline ambition of increasing elective activity to 30% above pre-pandemic levels by 2024–25, would require unprecedented double-digit growth in treatment volumes over the next two years. That would be more than three times the growth rate in the five years prior to Covid, and looks increasingly unreachable. As a result, it is likely that the waiting list will flatline rather than fall over the coming year.”
Significant investment will be needed to increase treatment volumes
The British Medical Association’s workforce lead, Dr Latifa Patel, says it is “extremely worrying” that the IFS predicts that even more patients will need to be treated simply so that the waiting list levels will remain static.
“The current level of pressure is not sustainable and it is ridiculous to suggest that the NHS can somehow ‘increase treatment volumes’ without significant investment and a credible workforce plan,” she added.
The Association is now calling on the government to put measures in place to increase the NHS workforce so that the health service is able to deal with the backlog of care safely and effectively.
“If the Government is serious about addressing this, we need to see the forthcoming long-term workforce strategy backed with funding as well as solutions like addressing pay restoration and punitive pension taxation so we can retain and boost our workforce. While the Government delays, 7.2 million people are still languishing on waiting lists,” Dr Patel said.